Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#163
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#167
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 11.6% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.2 12.5 13.4
.500 or above 53.7% 79.3% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.3% 74.9% 55.9%
Conference Champion 7.7% 14.0% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 3.0% 7.4%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round5.7% 11.3% 4.9%
Second Round0.9% 2.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 12.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 47 - 212 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 63   @ Miami (FL) L 64-76 13%    
  Nov 11, 2019 45   @ Alabama L 64-77 10%    
  Nov 20, 2019 257   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 71-69 58%    
  Nov 29, 2019 312   Holy Cross W 71-59 86%    
  Dec 01, 2019 131   Illinois-Chicago W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 04, 2019 295   Canisius W 76-65 82%    
  Dec 14, 2019 308   High Point W 70-59 84%    
  Dec 22, 2019 204   @ Mercer L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 29, 2019 79   @ South Florida L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 02, 2020 121   Texas San Antonio L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 04, 2020 169   UTEP W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 09, 2020 229   @ Rice W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 11, 2020 152   @ North Texas L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 16, 2020 174   Middle Tennessee W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 18, 2020 140   UAB W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 23, 2020 276   @ Charlotte W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 139   @ Old Dominion L 60-64 35%    
  Jan 30, 2020 76   Western Kentucky L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 01, 2020 188   Marshall W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 05, 2020 185   @ Florida International L 82-83 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 185   Florida International W 85-80 66%    
  Feb 13, 2020 238   @ Southern Miss W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 116   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-71 29%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.2 2.9 1.5 0.3 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.9 0.8 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 4.7 1.1 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.3 2.3 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.3 4.0 3.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 4.9 0.9 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.8 2.3 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 4.4 0.4 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.2 1.3 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.1 2.6 0.1 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.2 1.3 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.7 13th
14th 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.3 14th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.5 8.2 10.9 12.8 13.0 12.7 11.7 9.3 6.0 3.8 1.6 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-1 97.8% 1.5    1.3 0.3
12-2 76.9% 2.9    1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-3 36.5% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-4 8.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.0 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.3% 48.2% 32.5% 15.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 23.2%
13-1 1.6% 39.0% 32.0% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 10.2%
12-2 3.8% 25.9% 24.1% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 2.4%
11-3 6.0% 18.8% 18.4% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.6%
10-4 9.3% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.2 0.0%
9-5 11.7% 7.7% 7.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 10.8
8-6 12.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.2
7-7 13.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.8
6-8 12.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.7
5-9 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
4-10 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.2
3-11 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5
2-12 2.8% 2.8
1-13 1.2% 1.2
0-14 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.9% 5.6% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 94.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 48.3% 5.0 48.3